Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
