A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
